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[Senis]

The GBPUSD broke the resistance while following EURUSD pair rally last week and traded its way back below bearish trendline into the triangle. Price action within boundaries is slowly approaching the end of the triangle area, which should be broken by Tuesday. Whichever side GBPUSD will break this week, it is considered sharply bullish from a long term view. So definitely keep that in mind.

 

In figures, we are talking about the resistance at 1.6725, previously broken. This should be followed by upward movement to the rate of 1.6750 and 1.6800, up to 1.6900. On the other hand, break below 1.6700, should bring the pair down to the rate of 1.1.6580, followed by 1.6540. Assure, daily candle closes above or below this level to consider it as broken.

 

MACD and signal line is becoming slightly bearish and RSI indicates that pair is trading at normal conditions. 200 SMA is at 1.6575, quite below the current price, which will probably attract the price downward soon.

 

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5 %, at record low, same as previous and in the U.S., the Unemployment Claims dropped by 26 000, which caused the pair advanced to the level of 1.6750 and then lowered back to the 1.6685.

 

Market Watch Fundamentals

 

Monday

 

Two speeches we will be watching closely in regards to interest rates and monetary policy. In UK MPC Member Bean will give a speech and in the U.S. FOMC Member Plosser.

 

Tuesday

 

GBP: In the morning session we have Manufacturing and Industrial Production, expected to advance by 0.3%. At 10am Inflation Report Hearings with expected volatility on the market, as we will be hearing about inflation and economic outlook again. On Tuesday we will have also 10 year Bond Auction and Gross Domestic Product Estimate by NIESR, expected at 0.8%.

 

USD: At 2pm we have JOLTS Job Openings expected to improve to 4.03M and Wholesale Inventories expected to improve by 0.5%.

 

Wednesday

 

GBP: In the morning session, at 9.30am, Trade Balance/Deficit expected to widen by 1B from previous deficit of 7.7B.

 

USD: Start at 2.30pm with Crude Oil Inventories, expected at 1.4M after previous really small inventory of 0.1M. Federal Budget Balance will be release at 6pm, expected to go into high deficit of 223.2B. This release will be followed by speech from the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

 

Thursday

 

GBP: House Price Balance, expected lower price increase than previous and BOE Quarterly Bulletin, which might bring us some positive feeds based on BOE market analysis and overview.

 

USD: At 12.30pm under watch Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, both expected to improve by 0.2% and 0.3%. It will be followed by Unemployment Claims, which are expected to rise by 11K. Those three releases will definitely bring some effect on the pair rate.

 

Friday

 

GBP: At 10am CB Leading Index, mixture of already released data in regards to Consumer Confidence, Prices and Interest Rates, previously came out as a negative percentage. Hopefully we will see some more positive figure this week.

 

USD: At 12.30pm, Producer Price index will be released, expected rise by 0.2% and at 2pm, Prelim Consumer Sentiment, the first estimate, expected to improve to 81.9 from previous 81.2. - See more at: https://www.tradenextglobal.com/uk/market-watch/gbpusd-weekly-forecast-march-1014#sthash.ICjWyG1q.dpuf

[Senis]

The Gold lowered to the price of 1327.52 during Asian session, received some gains bit later during London time morning session and advanced to the price of $1344 an ounce. At the moment, bearish sentiment prevails. The price of $1340.90 seems to be keeping the commodity value bit below, so does the support of 1329 above.

 

Huge gap of 400 points should be narrowed between the current and average price of Gold. And it is only matter of time when the support will be broken and gold price will lower. Other technical indicators are showing us a bit confusing momentum of bearish and bullish trend at the same time, bullish sentiment seems to be stronger though.

 

The pivot level for today is at 1337.10, if the hourly chart candle closes below, it could cause the gold to drop towards the price of $1325 an ounce. If pivot level and 50 SMA, which is trading at the same price as the pivot level has been established, manages and holds the value of gold above, it could move the gold price up to $1347.70 an ounce, with a intermediate stop at the price $1344/45 an ounce.

 

Today we have Job Openings, leading indicator of employment/unemployment, expected to rise. If the release will come out as expected or well above the expectations, it will trigger positive move for the U.S. index and could cause some sales of gold. - See more at: https://www.tradenextglobal.com/uk/market-watch/gold-forecast-march-11-2014#sthash.UoY8XXtW.dpuf/url%5D[/img]

[Senis]

The EURUSD advanced on Friday after ECB Press Conference and positive outlook on Eurozone inflation, which should be within expectations by the end of 2016, and is trading at higher high since January, around the rate of 1.3880.

 

On Monday the pair was trading quietly as there were no high impact news releases, the volume slowed down and it looks like, the pair is ahead of some correction/fall. We are still expecting the pair to hit the rate of 1.3925 before going down. It is long term resistance/bearish trendline, which served good trades in short positions already few times before.

 

From technical view, the pair’s pivot level for today is at 1.3879/80 and current price is almost 200 points above 200 SMA, which for us is strong indicator that the market is trading way above an average price and it should be attracted at least for a correction move towards lower rates.

 

MACD is lowering, indicating a bit of bearish sentiment. Another indication of short trades ahead is RSI, which is quite overbought with a figure of 65. Reversal price formation is another confirmation of downward pressure.

 

Today we are looking towards German Trade Balance expected to advance to 19.3B from previous 18.5B. Also ECOFIN Meetings feeds could be good to look at. From the U.S. side, NFIB Small Business Index, expected to improve to 95.3 from previous 94.1. And in the afternoon US JOLTS Job Openings and Wholesale Inventories, both expected to improve to 4.03M and by 0.5%, respectively.

- See more at: https://www.tradenextglobal.com/uk/market-watch/eurusd-forecast-march-11-2014#sthash.ivQNJJj1.dpuf

[Senis]

The GBPUSD narrowed the difference between current and average price of 200 SMA to just 40 points. In the morning session broke the intermediate support/resistance that triggered rally down to first daily support at 1.6624. The support managed the pair to bounce back up and at the moment is trading just a little bit above at 1.6640. We still see another 40 points mentioned above to be traded in short position, with TP at 1.6600.

 

Reversal formation of candles from Friday had been showing that the GBPUSD market is under selling pressure, trading choppy. MACD broke the zero line, indicating bearish sentiment with RSI at 33, showing that the market is in the condition of oversold. We still believe that this is just reaction of indicator after rally and it will narrow back to 50 and another sell will be executed.

 

Today we have Inflation Report Hearing and Manufacturing Production to be released. Both of those releases could bring some volatility on the market and pair can become sharply bullish and bring the rate back to the level of 1.6715.

 

On the other hand, hearings in regards of setting higher interest rates again, with falling unemployment approaching 6.5% threshold, bearish sentiment could be the winner and move the market heavily down to the rate of 1.6550.

 

From Overseas we have JOLTS Job Opening, which are expected to improve to 4.02M from previous 3.99M, which could also send the pair easily down.

- See more at: https://www.tradenextglobal.com/uk/market-watch/gbpusd-forecast-march-11-2014#sthash.F7xINVPy.dpuf